TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 7:02 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either team wins during the final quarter of a college football game, focusing solely on points scored in that period. Outcomes depend on the margin of victory achieved in the 4th quarter, with various thresholds defining different markets.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Missouri vs Ole Miss college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team achieves a points differential exceeding the specified threshold for that market. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price. Each market defines a unique point differential threshold, ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points, for either Ole Miss or Missouri to win by in the 4th quarter alone for a 'Yes' resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis from a diverse range of participants. This can sometimes lead to differences compared to sportsbook odds, which may be more influenced by public betting patterns or the sportsbook’s own risk management strategies. While sportsbooks set lines to balance action, this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs about the likely outcome of the Missouri-Ole Miss game. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than traditional markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 4th quarter spread between Missouri and Ole Miss. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of the expected result. Currently, the most active contracts suggest a likelihood of Ole Miss winning the 4th quarter by over 6.5 points.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the 4th quarter of the Missouri versus Ole Miss game will be used to determine whether Ole Miss wins by more than 6.5 points, triggering a payout for those who purchased contracts predicting that outcome. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Missouri or Ole Miss teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions might cause traders to reassess their positions. Overall game momentum and any in-game adjustments could also be reflected in the market price as the game progresses.