TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in an upcoming college football game. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will dominate the final period of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Missouri vs Arkansas college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins the 4th quarter by more than the designated point spread. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance betting volume, while this market allows participants to freely express their beliefs about the game’s outcome. Over time, prediction market prices can converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and betting activity increases, but discrepancies can still arise due to differing participant motivations and information access.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the 4th quarter of the Missouri versus Arkansas game will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by a trusted source, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual spread will receive a payout of 1.00, while those holding losing contracts will receive 0.00.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Missouri or Arkansas would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s playing style, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift market sentiment. Even significant betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks might influence traders on Kalshi to reassess their probabilities.