TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether Missouri or Arkansas will achieve specific point differentials in the second half of their college football game. Outcomes depend solely on scoring during the latter half of play, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Missouri vs Arkansas college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold for either Missouri or Arkansas to exceed in their favor during that period. If Missouri wins by more than the designated margin in any of the Missouri-specific markets, that market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Arkansas wins by more than the designated margin in any of the Arkansas-specific markets, that market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official final result from the second half. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of contracts representing that outcome will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract indicates the probability that the actual spread will fall on that side of the line. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people want to buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Missouri versus Arkansas game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the correct side of the spread will settle at 100, while those predicting the incorrect side will settle to 0. The official result will be sourced from official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Missouri or Arkansas teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the style of play, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift traders’ expectations and cause the spread to adjust. Public perception and betting trends in traditional sportsbooks can also influence this market.