TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many touchdowns are caught by players from each team during an upcoming college football game. The outcomes depend on whether specific players on either team achieve thresholds of receiving touchdowns, with all scoring occurring during regular or overtime periods counted equally.
All markets resolve based on the total number of receiving touchdowns scored by either Mississippi State or Texas in their game scheduled for October 31, 2026, including any overtime periods. A receiving touchdown is counted only when the player who catches the pass also scores; if another player recovers a fumble and scores, it does not count as a receiving touchdown, though a player recovering their own fumble and scoring does count. Successful two-point conversions, regardless of when they occur, are excluded from all totals. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final official result. If the game does not begin within 48 hours of the scheduled start time, all markets resolve to a fair price. These rules apply uniformly across all outcome thresholds for both teams.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of information and differing motivations between market participants and sportsbook customers. It’s not uncommon to see initial discrepancies that narrow as the event draws nearer and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the market. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all traders on Kalshi regarding Texas scoring two or more receiving touchdowns.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official game statistics determining whether Texas scored two or more receiving touchdowns during the Mississippi State versus Texas game. The final score and official play-by-play will be the basis for verifying the outcome, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team – particularly the Texas receiving corps or the Mississippi State defense – would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, especially conditions that might favor a passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any updated analysis from sports analysts or significant betting movements in traditional sportsbooks could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust prices in this market.