TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 12:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Mississippi State and LSU. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold that must be exceeded by either team to determine the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the Mississippi State vs LSU college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. For any market to resolve to 'Yes,' the specified team must win the first quarter by more than the stated point spread. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward the resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. The markets cover a range of point spreads for both teams, allowing for various thresholds of victory margins to be evaluated independently.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by individuals expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome. As a result, you may find that the odds on Kalshi differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. These differences can arise from varying levels of expertise among market participants, access to unique information, or simply differing interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts at different price points. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a contract priced at 60 means there’s a 60% implied probability of that spread being correct. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand – if more people believe the spread will be a certain value, they’ll buy contracts representing that outcome, driving the price up. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the Mississippi State vs LSU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score differential after the first quarter will be compared to the contract values to determine winning and losing contracts. The resolution process is designed to be objective and based on publicly available data, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome for all participants. Traders will be able to see the confirmed result on Kalshi following the game’s conclusion.
Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the Mississippi State or LSU teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s playing style, could also impact the market. Unexpected news about team morale or coaching decisions could also play a role. Finally, as more information becomes available – such as pre-game analysis from sports analysts – the market will continue to adjust and reflect the evolving expectations of traders on Kalshi.