TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 5:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming professional soccer match between Mirassol and Sao Paulo. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent, with different thresholds defining various outcomes. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios for the Mirassol vs Sao Paulo Brasileiro Serie A match scheduled for October 24, 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty phases are irrelevant. Four distinct outcome categories exist: Mirassol winning by more than 2.5 goals, Mirassol winning by more than 1.5 goals, Sao Paulo winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Sao Paulo winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market where the actual goal differential meets or exceeds its specified threshold resolves to 'Yes'; all others resolve to 'No'. The governing body’s official match result, as recognized by the league, determines resolution. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market is driven purely by individuals’ willingness to buy or sell based on their own analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant amount of trading occurs. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into where the crowd and the experts diverge in their expectations for the Mirassol vs Sao Paulo match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders. The price of a 'yes' outcome reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by the collective actions of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of the spread in the Mirassol vs Sao Paulo match. The current price represents the market's best estimate, but it's constantly evolving based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Mirassol vs Sao Paulo match, specifically the spread, will be used to determine whether the 'yes' or 'no' outcome prevails. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by a trusted source for the match. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome as determined by this verifiable data.
Several factors could influence trading in this market leading up to Oct 24, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could shift expectations and impact the price. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match commentary from analysts could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market is reacting to new information surrounding the Mirassol vs Sao Paulo match.