TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming NHL game between Minnesota and Winnipeg. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond its opponent, with different thresholds defining various outcomes. The event reflects the competitive balance and strategic gameplay of the teams in a head-to-head match.
The event consists of four primary rules that collectively determine the outcome based on the goal differential in the Minnesota vs Winnipeg NHL game scheduled for October 13, 2026. If Winnipeg wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Winnipeg wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Minnesota wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Minnesota wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the result still applies; if the game is cancelled or does not start within that window, all markets resolve to a fair price. These rules ensure the resolution accounts for both the game’s result and potential scheduling changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the spread, you may see divergence between the two. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook lines tend to converge as more information becomes available and public opinion solidifies. It's a useful comparison for informed betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price becomes, indicating increased confidence in that result. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Minnesota versus Winnipeg game. The market will settle based on whether Minnesota covers the spread, Winnipeg covers the spread, or if the result is a push. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in goaltending matchups, or significant shifts in team performance could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or even weather conditions affecting travel could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could signal a change in market expectations. Monitoring these signals and staying updated on team news will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations before the market resolves.