TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:39 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the outcome of an NHL hockey game between Minnesota and Seattle, focusing on the margin of victory. It determines whether either team secures a win by a specified number of goals. The event resolution depends on the official game result, accounting for potential postponements within a defined timeframe.
The event consists of four markets, each evaluating whether Minnesota or Seattle wins the game by a specific margin of victory—either over 1.5 or over 2.5 goals. If Seattle wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Minnesota wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, the respective market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment under scheduling disruptions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders, as the market often incorporates information more quickly than sportsbooks. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for anyone following the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. The market efficiently incorporates public and private information, providing a real-time assessment of the potential spread.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread, as determined by official league sources, will be used to determine which side of the market settles positively. Contracts predicting the spread will be above a certain point will pay out if the actual spread is higher, and vice-versa. The resolution will reflect the official result of the game, as reported by the NFL.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Minnesota or Seattle teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence the spread. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Finally, large shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in betting activity, can also drive price changes in this market as traders react to new information and adjust their expectations.