TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Minnesota wins by more than 2.5 goals
- Kalshi
Minnesota wins by more than 2.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 05d:04h:20m
$
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Minnesota and San Jose, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a 'Yes' outcome across four distinct markets in the Minnesota vs San Jose MLS match scheduled for November 7, 2026. All resolutions occur after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Minnesota wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, or if San Jose wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals. Each market specifies a unique threshold for victory margin, allowing varied assessments of the match's one-sidedness from both teams' perspectives. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals buying and selling contracts based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making, as both sources offer unique insights into the potential outcome of the Minnesota vs San Jose game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different point spreads in the Minnesota vs San Jose game. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus, making it a dynamic representation of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Minnesota vs San Jose game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the sport. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The final result will be publicly available and transparently applied to settle all outstanding contracts in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Minnesota or San Jose teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or strategic shifts could lead to rapid price adjustments. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market and capitalize on evolving expectations regarding the Minnesota vs San Jose spread.