TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Minnesota or Purdue specifically within the second quarter of their scheduled college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between Minnesota and Purdue exclusively during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. For markets specifying Minnesota as the potential winner, resolution occurs if Minnesota's second-quarter score exceeds the opponent's score by more than the stated margin (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points). Conversely, markets specifying Purdue resolve if Purdue achieves a second-quarter win by margins greater than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these outcomes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing uncertainties.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts in both markets. However, it’s important to remember that prediction market prices are dynamic and change based on new information and trading activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where buyers and sellers set the price of contracts. Each contract represents a specific outcome regarding the Minnesota-Purdue 2nd quarter spread. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is influenced by factors like news, injuries, and overall market sentiment. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the second quarter of the Minnesota versus Purdue game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the correct spread will settle at 100, while those predicting an incorrect spread will settle at 0. The official game statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the final result.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Minnesota or Purdue would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team strategy or unexpected starting lineup announcements could also move the market. Furthermore, general shifts in public perception, fueled by expert analysis or breaking news, can influence trading activity. Even weather conditions on game day could play a role, potentially affecting the scoring dynamics and influencing predictions for the Minnesota-Purdue 2nd quarter spread.