TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:45 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets focus on whether specific players or team defensive units score touchdowns in an upcoming football game. Outcomes depend on actual scoring performance during the full match, including any overtime periods. Certain contracts include protection clauses adjusting payouts if a player’s participation is limited after the first half.
All markets resolve based on whether designated players or team defensive units score the specified number of touchdowns (1+ or 2+) during the entire game, including overtime. Each contract is marked as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime, the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. If the player participates in any play after halftime, the contract settles based on actual statistics, regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. Passing touchdowns do not count toward player totals, while team defense/special-teams selections are settled on actual touchdowns without player participation exceptions. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'at least' payout criteria.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional sportsbook odds, which are typically set by a smaller group of experts. While sportsbooks consider factors like team statistics and injuries, this market aggregates opinions from many individuals, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and widely publicized, and may differ from the probabilities implied by trading in this market. It’s useful to compare both to form your own informed opinion.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official number of touchdowns scored in the Minnesota vs New Orleans game, as reported by official league sources. The final price of each outcome will reflect the actual result of the game, and traders who correctly predicted the outcome will profit based on the difference between their purchase and sale price.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Minnesota or New Orleans teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting passing or running games, could also shift probabilities. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or popular opinion, could impact trading activity and prices in this market.