TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether a specific player achieves various yardage milestones in a football game between two teams on a set date. The outcome depends on the combined total of rushing and receiving yards accumulated by the player during the game. Thresholds for success are defined in advance, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of these performance benchmarks being met.
The event evaluates whether Aaron Jones Sr. achieves specified cumulative yardage thresholds (100+, 125+, and 150+) through both rushing and receiving in the Minnesota vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For each threshold, if Jones is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once Jones takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the total rushing and receiving yards he records during the game. The markets operate independently, each resolving to 'Yes' if the corresponding yardage threshold is met. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public perception or sharp action. Sportsbooks may adjust their odds based on betting patterns, but this market allows for continuous price discovery driven by a diverse range of participants. While sportsbooks set lines to ensure profitability, this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations, and often prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can place limit orders to buy or sell at specific prices, or market orders to execute trades immediately at the best available price. This dynamic process ensures that the market price constantly adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The more contracts purchased for a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb, signaling increased confidence.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing and receiving yardage totals for the players involved in the Minnesota vs. New Orleans game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the results. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objectively verifiable data.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected reports about a player’s health or playing time would likely cause a rapid adjustment in the odds. Game-day performance during the first half could also trigger movement, as traders react to early results. Furthermore, any significant analysis from sports analysts or changes in public perception could contribute to shifts in the price of contracts within this market.