TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:23 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how often a specific player, Aaron Jones Sr., carries the ball during a football game between Minnesota and New Orleans. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of rushing attempts. The rules account for scenarios where the player might not participate in the game.
The official rules for these markets dictate that Aaron Jones Sr. must record a specified number of rushing attempts (14+, 17+, or 20+) in the Minnesota vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026, for the market to resolve to Yes. If Jones is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once Jones takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by the total rushing attempts he records during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in cases where a player’s participation is limited or disrupted, providing a consistent framework for resolution across all thresholds specified in the individual markets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to attract balanced betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, risk appetites, and the incentive structures of each venue. If significant differences emerge between this market and sportsbook odds, it might signal an opportunity for informed traders to capitalize on perceived mispricings, though it doesn’t guarantee a profitable outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of combined rushing attempts by both Minnesota and New Orleans will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The contracts will settle at $1.00 for the winning range of rushing attempts and $0.00 for all others. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game statistics to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could impact rushing strategies. Late-breaking news regarding coaching decisions or offensive play-calling tendencies could also move the market. Additionally, any shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' offensive capabilities could drive trading activity and alter the prices in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential opportunities.