TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming football game between Minnesota and New Orleans. Contracts will pay out based on the exact count of receptions each player records, with increasing payouts for higher reception totals. The structure incentivizes precise predictions about player performance in a key matchup.
Contracts pay out based on the exact number of official receptions recorded by designated players during the Minnesota vs New Orleans game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each Yes contract’s payout scales non-linearly with reception counts up to 14, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s equals the official receptions. Payouts max at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the corresponding Yes payout. All markets resolve to Yes regardless of outcome after the game concludes, with payouts determined solely by reception totals. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Polls and analysts’ predictions also frequently differ from both sportsbook and prediction market pricing, highlighting the diverse range of opinions surrounding the outcome of the game and individual player performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final number of receptions. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, giving traders insight into the potential liquidity and the strength of conviction behind various outcomes. The price discovery process is driven entirely by supply and demand from traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved in the Minnesota vs. New Orleans game will be used to determine the winning contracts. Official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct reception total will be paid out according to the contract value at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Minnesota or New Orleans teams would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect passing games, could also shift expectations. Unexpected coaching decisions or adjustments to offensive strategies could influence player usage and, consequently, reception totals. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders reassessing their positions and adjusting the price of contracts in this market.