TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the receiving yard performance of specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Minnesota and New Orleans. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase linearly with the player's receiving yards, while 'No' contracts pay the remainder of a dollar after subtracting the 'Yes' payout. The structure incentivizes participants to predict both whether a player will meet certain performance thresholds and how many yards they will accumulate.
All markets function as scalar contracts where 'Yes' payouts are determined by a fixed rate of $0.0025 per receiving yard accumulated by the specified player during the game, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 400 yards). 'No' contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the 'Yes' payout. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, meaning each holder's payout scales with their share of the total position size. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, 'Yes' contracts pay $0.20 and 'No' contracts pay $0.80; at 200 yards, both sides pay $0.50. Zero yards result in a $0 'Yes' payout and a full $1.00 'No' payout. The structure ensures that total payouts for each contract type always sum to $1.00, creating a zero-sum dynamic where predictions about yardage performance directly determine financial outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when considering the collective intelligence of informed participants. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can present potential trading opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices for each contract representing a specific receiving yardage threshold. Traders submit bids (buy orders) and asks (sell orders), and when a match occurs, a trade is executed. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability that a player will exceed that yardage total. As more traders participate and new information emerges, these prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic representation of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the Minnesota vs New Orleans game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each player will be sourced from official NFL data and used to determine which contracts settle in the money. The resolution will reflect the actual performance on the field during the game, as recorded by the official league statistics.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to game day. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about player matchups or defensive schemes could also cause price movements. Furthermore, late-breaking news regarding a player’s health or playing time will likely have a substantial impact. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments is crucial for traders in this market.