TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:15 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how many times a quarterback completes passes during a specific football game between Minnesota and New Orleans. The outcomes depend on whether the player reaches certain completion thresholds. The rules account for scenarios where the player might not participate in the game.
All markets focus on Kyler Murray’s passing completions in the Minnesota vs New Orleans game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if Murray achieves a specific minimum number of completions (16, 21, or 26). A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if Murray is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair pre-game price. However, once he takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by a penalty — the market resolves based on the actual completions recorded during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in cases of limited or no participation, while maintaining accuracy for markets once gameplay begins.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on injuries, weather conditions, or strategic adjustments. It's common to see this market incorporate information more quickly than sportsbooks, especially regarding late-breaking news, potentially leading to more accurate predictions as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different completion totals. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a specific outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into the collective expectations of participants regarding the game's passing statistics, influenced by factors like team strategies and player performance.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing completion statistics for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game data released by the NFL, and the contract corresponding to the actual number of passing completions will pay out. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as an injury report, would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to affect the passing game like heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift the market. Unexpected starting lineup announcements, strategic adjustments revealed by coaches, or even significant performance trends observed in recent games could all influence trading activity and price movements in this market.