TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Minnesota and Detroit. Participants bet on whether each player's receptions will meet a certain financial threshold, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure rewards accurate predictions of player involvement in the game.
Each market operates as a scalar betting system where Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the named player during the specified Minnesota vs Detroit NFL game, capped at $1.00 for up to 20 receptions. No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract holdings and adjust dynamically based on actual receptions: for example, 8 receptions yield $0.40 Yes and $0.60 No, while zero receptions result in $0.00 Yes and $1.00 No. All markets resolve to Yes if the payout conditions are met, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the NFL. Trademarks and branding belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks are often influenced by factors like public betting biases and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities in this market differ from those offered by sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate relevant news and insights than sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The market is currently driven by traders’ expectations of player performance and game strategy, and the price will fluctuate as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final reception totals for all relevant players will be tallied from official game statistics. The market will settle based on these verified numbers, determining which contracts pay out and at what value. It is important to note that the official statistics are the definitive source for resolution, and any discrepancies will be resolved based on those figures.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Vikings or the Lions would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could affect passing game strategies and therefore reception totals. Unexpected starting lineup changes or adjustments to offensive play-calling could also shift expectations. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could influence traders’ assessments and lead to price movements in this market.