TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific player performance metrics in an upcoming American football game, focusing on receiving yard thresholds for key players. The outcome depends entirely on whether the designated players meet or exceed their individual yardage targets during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All markets share a common framework for resolution based on player participation and performance thresholds. Each contract is designated as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but not afterward, the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game unless the player meets their specified receiving yardage target. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count toward participation requirements. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'above or at-least' payout criteria, and all yardage calculations include overtime periods. The event exclusively uses full-game receiving yard statistics for resolution.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. It’s common to see this market incorporate information and insights not immediately reflected in traditional betting lines, potentially offering a unique view on the likely outcome of the Vikings-Lions game. Keep in mind that sportsbooks and prediction markets have different incentives and user bases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final receiving yards total. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the aggregated sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined solely by supply and demand from traders on Kalshi, and is not influenced by external factors or predetermined values. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the expected receiving yards total.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yards total for both the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics from the NFL will be used to determine the total receiving yards, and that total will be compared against the contracts traded on Kalshi. The market will then settle, and winning contracts will be paid out according to their value at the time of resolution. The final result will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers and tight ends on both teams would be a major catalyst, as their absence would directly impact the expected receiving yards. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing game strategies and therefore the total. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding play-calling or personnel usage could also shift the market. Finally, any significant news related to the overall offensive performance or defensive matchups between the Vikings and Lions could lead to price movements in this market.