TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. It examines whether either player reaches various statistical thresholds during the full match, including overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback achieves the specified passing yard threshold at any point during the entire game, including overtime. Each contract is designated as protected: if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the exact threshold is met, in which case it settles based on actual performance. Players participating in any play after the first half trigger settlement based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Penalty-nullified plays and non-participating players follow specific non-participation rules. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'at least' criteria.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. However, as the event approaches, this market tends to converge with sportsbook odds, as both attempt to accurately forecast the outcome of the game and the associated passing yardage totals.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are influenced by factors like news reports, injury updates, and overall market sentiment regarding the performance of the quarterbacks in the Minnesota vs Detroit matchup.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage total from the Minnesota vs Detroit game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will serve as the basis for determining the winning contract. The total passing yards, including any yards gained from penalties, will be used to settle this market. Traders will be able to view the final result and any associated payouts on Kalshi following the game's completion.
Several signals could influence the price of this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or defensive matchups could also shift market sentiment. Finally, large volume trades by informed participants could indicate a change in expectations and lead to price fluctuations in the NFL passing yards market.