TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:02 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the number of passing touchdowns achieved by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Minnesota and Detroit. The outcomes depend on whether the designated player meets or exceeds various thresholds of scoring passes during the match.
Each contract is designated as protected, meaning if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the required passing touchdowns threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game passing touchdowns including overtime. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides of a bet. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own informed opinions, leading to odds that may diverge from traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or shifts in public perception than sportsbooks do.
On Kalshi, the price of contracts in this market is determined by supply and demand. Traders place bids (to buy) and asks (to sell), and the market continuously matches these orders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective belief of all participants regarding the likelihood of each outcome. Higher demand for a particular outcome will drive up its price, while increased supply will lower it. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches. The current volume suggests a moderate level of interest in this particular matchup.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing touchdowns scored by each quarterback in the Minnesota versus Detroit game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the outcome of this market.
Unexpected news regarding player availability is a primary driver for this market. If a starting quarterback or a key receiver is ruled out due to injury, the probabilities will likely shift dramatically. Furthermore, updates on team practice reports, revealing changes in offensive play-calling or defensive schemes, could also influence trading activity. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, might impact how traders value different outcomes in this market as we approach the Nov 1, 2026 resolution.