TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they each achieve. Bettors can speculate on whether a player will reach various threshold levels of scoring passes during the match.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by either Jared Goff or Kyler Murray in the Minnesota vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 1 to 5 passing touchdowns) that must be met or exceeded by the respective quarterback for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the threshold specified.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the odds in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity can provide insights into the level of confidence traders have in each potential result. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Minnesota vs. Detroit game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payouts after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact the odds. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or defensive adjustments could shift trader sentiment. Even public perception, influenced by expert analysis or social media discussions, can play a role in how this market evolves until it resolves.