TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory in the third quarter of a specific football game between Minnesota and Detroit. Each market corresponds to different point differentials that would determine the outcome, allowing participants to assess how dominant one team might be in that particular quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the third quarter of the Minnesota vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the quarter by more than the stated point margin. Only points scored during the third quarter count; any points from other quarters are irrelevant. The markets cover a range of margins from 1.5 to 10.5 points for both teams, allowing for varied predictions of the quarter's competitive balance. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information sources and biases. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can reveal where public opinion diverges from professional analysis, offering a unique perspective on the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Vikings-Lions 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts dynamically, providing a real-time indication of expectations. The current price indicates how much it costs to take one side of the bet, and the spread between the buy and sell prices represents the market’s transaction costs.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the third quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range specified by each contract. The platform will verify the data and distribute payouts accordingly, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Vikings or the Lions could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also play a role. Additionally, in-game performance during the first and second quarters could lead to adjustments in the perceived likelihood of different third-quarter spreads. Public sentiment and large trading volume from informed bettors could also contribute to price movements.