TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Minnesota or Detroit during the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Minnesota and Detroit at the end of the second quarter of play in their game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team to exceed—for Detroit, thresholds range from 1.5 to over 10.5 points, and for Minnesota, thresholds range from 2.5 to over 10.5 points. If the actual point differential meets or exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward determining the outcome of these markets. The markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others, and all are subject to the same secondary rule regarding quarter-specific scoring.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe the Vikings will perform better than expected in the second quarter, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially as event time approaches, as they aggregate diverse perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous, order-book style exchange. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a stronger belief that the outcome will favor that side of the spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in this market, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast of the game’s 2nd quarter.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the 2nd quarter of the Minnesota Vikings versus the Detroit Lions game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding key player injuries to either the Vikings or the Lions would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Even public sentiment, reflected in social media or expert analysis, can influence traders’ beliefs and drive price fluctuations. Any late-breaking news or developments related to team performance or strategy could lead to substantial shifts in this market before Nov 2, 2026.