TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Minnesota or Detroit in the first quarter of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team to resolve positively.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the first quarter of the Minnesota vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team exceeds the specified point margin outlined in each individual market—ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points—for either Minnesota or Detroit. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward resolution, and all markets operate independently with distinct thresholds. The broader set collectively offers granular perspectives on potential scoring margins, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance by either team within the opening quarter.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public bias or promotional offers. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action on both sides, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong ability to forecast event outcomes, sometimes outperforming traditional methods. However, sportsbook odds can still provide valuable context, and discrepancies between the two can present potential opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the first quarter spread. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. Traders essentially bet on their predictions, and their actions directly influence the odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe Detroit will win by over 10.5 points, for example, the higher the price of that contract will climb. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final first quarter spread between Minnesota and Detroit will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the result. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries for either Minnesota or Detroit would undoubtedly cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum shifts, as can any significant public statements from analysts or experts regarding the likely outcome of the game. Monitoring these signals is crucial for informed trading.