TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming NHL game between Minnesota and Calgary. Each market corresponds to a specific winning team and goal differential threshold, determining whether the outcome meets or exceeds that margin. The collective markets provide a detailed view of potential scorelines and decisive nature of the game.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential by which either Minnesota or Calgary wins the game scheduled for October 22, 2026, with specific thresholds for each team. If Calgary wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes; if they win by more than 1.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Minnesota wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, they remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment under unforeseen circumstances.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it might indicate that prediction market participants believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies and information sets, and can diverge based on public perception.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Minnesota vs Calgary spread. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain result, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to accurately represent the probability of each outcome as perceived by the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official results released following the conclusion of the Minnesota vs Calgary game. The market will settle to 100 if the spread is as predicted, and proportionally less if the actual spread deviates from the market's prediction. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or cover their losses based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the Minnesota vs Calgary spread market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or strategic shifts could lead to rapid adjustments in the market price. Public perception, fueled by media coverage and expert analysis, can also play a role in shaping the market's direction as the event approaches.