TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter of a football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints. Each market assesses different point spreads to determine which team will lead by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints exclusively during the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different point spread threshold, ranging from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to larger margins like over 10.5 points, for either team to win by. If the winning team exceeds the specified spread during the first quarter, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Only points scored in the first quarter count, and the markets are independent of the overall game outcome or any subsequent quarters. The markets cover both teams, with separate thresholds for the Vikings and the Saints, allowing for varied betting opportunities on the size of the lead either team establishes early in the game.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public opinion strongly favors one outcome. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders who believe the market has mispriced the probability of a particular result. Keep in mind that sportsbooks and prediction markets have different incentives and user bases, leading to varied perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. Traders are incentivized to offer accurate predictions, as they profit if their contracts align with the eventual outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market for forecasting the Vikings-Saints 1st quarter spread.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the first quarter of the Vikings-Saints game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be the basis for settlement. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the Vikings-Saints 1st quarter spread market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries to either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the market. Unexpected shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by analyst predictions or social media buzz, could also play a role. Finally, any substantial betting activity in traditional sportsbooks might prompt traders on Kalshi to reassess their positions, leading to price adjustments in this market.