TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:41 AM EST
Kalshi
Two soccer teams compete in a match where the outcome depends on the margin of victory. The event resolves based on whether either team wins by a specific number of goals or more after the full regulation time.
The event resolves based on the outcome of the Millwall vs Lincoln professional EFL Championship soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026. The result is determined by the winning margin after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct conditions are evaluated: Millwall winning by more than 2.5 goals, Millwall winning by more than 1.5 goals, Lincoln winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Lincoln winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution is strictly based on the official match result as recorded by the EFL Championship governing body.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. This can lead to divergences, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or unexpected developments than sportsbooks, as the continuous trading process incorporates information more efficiently. However, sportsbook odds remain a valuable benchmark for comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Millwall vs Lincoln match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in a particular outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions align with the eventual result. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Millwall vs Lincoln match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the governing body of the league. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day might also play a role, potentially impacting the style of play and the final spread. Major announcements about team lineups or coaching decisions could also trigger price movements. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the relative strengths of Millwall and Lincoln has the potential to move this market.