TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 5:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between two major teams competing in a league game. The result is determined solely by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Participants can speculate on which team will win or if the match will end in a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Milan vs Inter professional Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Milan wins, the 'Milan' market resolves to Yes. If Inter wins, the 'Inter' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets are independent of any official affiliations with Lega Serie A or the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly before significant events or when there's a lot of uncertainty. Analyzing both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the perceived probabilities of various outcomes in the Milan Derby.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means that the odds can shift rapidly based on supply and demand, offering opportunities for traders to profit from their insights.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by the final result of the Milan versus Inter match. The market will settle to 100 if one team wins, or 50 if the match ends in a draw. The resolution will be based on official results reported by recognized sports authorities, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the match. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Milan or Inter would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news related to team morale or internal conflicts could also shift perceptions and affect the odds. Monitoring these signals provides insight into potential shifts in the market.