TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 3:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Milan and Bologna, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios for the Milan vs Bologna Serie A match scheduled for October 28, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are possible, each corresponding to a specific margin of victory: Milan winning by more than 2.5 goals, Milan winning by more than 1.5 goals, Bologna winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Bologna winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The event explicitly states that the platform operating these markets—Kalshi—holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of individuals, potentially incorporating information not readily available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade on their own assessment of the Milan vs Bologna match. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to unique data, or simply the dynamic nature of the prediction market where prices adjust continuously based on supply and demand. It's common to see prediction markets and sportsbook odds converge closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the probability that traders assign to that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s expectation of the spread, and traders can profit by correctly predicting the final result. The more traders who believe a particular spread is likely, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Milan vs Bologna match, as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The resolution will reflect the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of regulation time. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 28, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Milan or Bologna would likely cause significant movement, as would any changes in team form or tactical approaches. Unexpected news regarding team morale or coaching decisions could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to price adjustments in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders seeking to capitalize on opportunities.