TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 3:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Bologna will win its professional Serie A soccer game against Milan. Currently, Kalshi gives Bologna a 72.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 23.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the Milan vs Bologna match originally scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official match result. Keep a close watch on the kickoff of the match on October 28, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the event window for resolution.
The event involves determining the winner of a professional Serie A soccer match between Milan and Bologna scheduled for October 28, 2026. The market resolves based on the result after the full 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Three distinct outcomes are possible: Milan wins, Bologna wins, or the match ends in a tie. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price according to the platform's rules. The platform, Kalshi, clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Lega Serie A or any governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective prediction of informed traders. Discrepancies can arise from differing information, analytical approaches, or simply the influence of public sentiment. If you find a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by traditional sportsbooks, it could indicate an opportunity to capitalize on a perceived mispricing. It's important to note that both represent probabilities, but are derived through distinct mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Milan vs Bologna match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in their account balances once resolution is complete. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the market is interpreting the latest information and potential developments.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or even unexpected weather conditions could all influence trader sentiment. News regarding team morale, recent performance in other matches, and any pre-game analysis from sports commentators are also likely to impact the market. Unexpected announcements about player availability or tactical changes close to the match could cause rapid price adjustments as traders react to the new information. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential market movements.