TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 12:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game. It includes scenarios where either team scores first or if no team manages to score a touchdown at all during the game, including any overtime periods.
The market determines the outcome based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Michigan vs Rutgers college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. All types of touchdowns—including offensive, defensive, and special teams—count towards the resolution. If the first touchdown occurs in overtime, it still counts for the respective team’s market. If neither team scores a touchdown during the entire game, including overtime, the “No team scores a TD” market resolves to Yes. Postponements are handled such that if the game starts within 48 hours of the original scheduled time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe one team is more likely to score first, the odds on Kalshi will shift accordingly, potentially diverging from the initial sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, constantly adjusting to new information and insights.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team scores the first touchdown in the Michigan vs Rutgers game. The result will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data, ensuring an objective and accurate determination of the winning outcome. All trading will cease once the resolution is finalized.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. News regarding key player injuries for either Michigan or Rutgers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor a specific team's offensive style, could also move the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could prompt traders to reassess their predictions, leading to fluctuations in contract prices on Kalshi.