TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 7:13 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how much either team wins by specifically in the final quarter of a college football game, focusing solely on performance during that period. Outcomes depend entirely on the point differential achieved in the fourth quarter, ignoring earlier or later stages of play.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Michigan St. vs UCLA college football game scheduled for Oct 24, 2026. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team in that quarter for a 'Yes' resolution. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price. No market considers points from other quarters or overtime periods.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed bettors, though it’s important to remember both represent probabilities, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in the market, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome of the fourth quarter spread in the Michigan State vs UCLA game.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fourth quarter spread of the Michigan State vs UCLA game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a trusted sports data source. The contract corresponding to the actual final spread will pay out $100, while all other contracts will pay out $0. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Michigan State or UCLA teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected performance in earlier parts of the game could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed individuals or institutions could impact the price, as could broader public perception of each team’s chances as reflected in polls or analyst predictions. Keep an eye on these signals as the game approaches and unfolds.