TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 7:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second half of a college football game between Michigan State and UCLA. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on whether the winning team will exceed that margin during the second half of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Michigan St. vs UCLA college football game scheduled for Oct 24, 2026. For markets where UCLA is the potential winner, resolution occurs if UCLA wins the second half by more than the specified point margin (e.g., over 23.5, 20.5, down to 2.5 points). Conversely, for markets where Michigan St. is the potential winner, resolution occurs if Michigan St. wins the second half by more than the specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, up to 14.5 points). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official final result of the second half. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of the original scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment of the likely outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, but generally, both aim to predict the same event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the correct result at the end of the second half. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. Higher volume indicates greater confidence in a particular spread, and the price will move accordingly based on supply and demand for those contracts.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Michigan State versus UCLA basketball game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be the basis for settlement. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive nothing.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Michigan State or UCLA teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in public perception, driven by expert analysis or social media discussion, can also impact trading activity. Finally, as the game approaches and more information becomes available – such as starting lineups or weather conditions – the market will likely become more volatile and reflect the latest insights. Unexpected coaching decisions during the game could also shift the spread.