TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 7:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether UCLA will win its college football game against Michigan State. Currently, the probability of UCLA winning on Kalshi is 91.0%, while Michigan State winning is at 8.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the game originally scheduled for October 23, 2026, as reported by the official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market closes upon the completion of the Michigan State versus UCLA game on October 23, 2026, to determine the winner.
The market resolves based on the official result of the Michigan State versus UCLA college football game scheduled for October 23, 2026. If UCLA wins the game, the UCLA market resolves to Yes, and the Michigan State market resolves to No. Conversely, if Michigan State wins, the Michigan State market resolves to Yes, and the UCLA market resolves to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, both markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game be cancelled or fail to start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, both markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance betting volume, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their true beliefs about the outcome. Over time, prediction market prices tend to become more accurate forecasts, incorporating new information and diverse viewpoints. However, sportsbook odds can still offer valuable insights and represent another data point when evaluating the potential result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. The current price essentially represents the cost to take a position on a specific result happening in the Michigan State vs UCLA game.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Michigan State vs UCLA game as reported by a recognized sports authority. The actual game result will determine which contracts pay out and at what value, based on the prices at the time of resolution. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 24, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected team performance in preceding games could all cause shifts in trader sentiment. Major upsets in other relevant games, weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, or even public announcements from key players could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact is crucial for informed trading in this market.