TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players or defensive units score touchdowns during an upcoming American football game between Miami and New York. The outcome depends on whether designated individuals or team defense units achieve scoring plays throughout the entire match, including any overtime periods.
All markets in this event resolve based on whether designated players or defensive units record one or more touchdowns during the full duration of the Miami vs New York J game scheduled for October 25, 2026, including any overtime periods. Each contract features a protection clause: if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after halftime—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game’s opening kickoff unless the player records the required touchdowns. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protection mechanism applies exclusively to full-game contracts with "at least" payout criteria. Importantly, passing touchdowns do not count toward a passer’s touchdown total, and team defense/special-teams selections are settled purely on actual touchdowns without applying the player participation exception.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. If there's a significant discrepancy, it might indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see the market odds move closer to sportsbook odds as the event approaches, but differences often remain due to varying information and risk appetites.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible touchdown totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a specific total, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders can earn money based on the difference between their buy and sell prices.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final touchdown count in the Miami versus New York game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on the actual number of touchdowns scored during the game, and all winning contracts will be settled at a value of 100.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Miami or New York team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could also contribute to price fluctuations.