TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Miami will win by more than 1.5 points in their game against New York J. Currently, the probability of Miami winning by over 1.5 points on Kalshi is 61.0%. The market will resolve based on the final score difference in the Miami vs New York J Pro Football game, as determined by the game’s official results. Keep an eye on the outcome of the game itself on October 25, 2026, as that is when this market will be resolved based on the final score.
Each market resolves based on the point differential between Miami and New York J in their Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Markets are structured to resolve to 'Yes' if New York J wins by a specified margin (ranging from over 1.5 points to over 20.5 points) or if Miami wins by a specified margin (ranging from over 1.5 points to over 14.5 points). The exact threshold for resolution varies per market, with higher thresholds representing larger victory margins. All markets are independent, and each has its own specific point differential requirement for resolution. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to align with sportsbook odds, but often reflect a more informed consensus. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or biases among bettors on Kalshi. If you observe a significant difference between the spread here and at traditional sportsbooks, it could indicate that prediction market traders possess insights not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. This can be a valuable signal for informed betting decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders' expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time assessment of probability, reflecting the collective intelligence of the market participants. The current price represents the probability of the spread settling as indicated by the contract value.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Miami vs New York game. The platform will then verify this result against publicly available sources to determine which contracts settle as winners. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could influence the Miami vs New York spread between now and Oct 25, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either team would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected news regarding team strategy, coaching changes, or even weather conditions could also shift market sentiment. Major shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also drive trading activity. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team covering the spread has the potential to move this market.