TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market follows similar logic but tracks the number of receptions rather than yards for the same two players. Payouts increase linearly with each reception, subject to a cap on total Yes payout.
Contracts pay based on the receptions recorded by either Garrett Wilson or Malik Washington during the specified game. Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception up to a $1.00 maximum, while No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. The payout is capped at 20 receptions. Examples include 8 receptions paying Yes $0.40 and No $0.60, 11 receptions paying Yes $0.55 and No $0.45, and zero receptions paying Yes $0.00 and No $1.00. Payouts are proportional to contract positions.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' aggregating insights from a diverse range of participants. This can sometimes lead to differences compared to sportsbook odds, which may be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. While sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to participate and express their belief about the likelihood of a specific outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and the event draws nearer, as this market dynamically adjusts to new data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the number of receptions will exceed a specific threshold. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the 'yes' outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the market's collective prediction. The closer we get to the event, the more volatile the price may become as new information impacts trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official NFL statistics for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of receptions by the players in the specified game, as recorded by the official NFL data feed. The market will determine whether the total receptions exceed or fall short of the predetermined threshold, and payouts will be issued accordingly to contract holders. Traders should monitor official sources for the final statistics to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers and tight ends are significant, as their availability directly impacts potential reception numbers. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could affect passing game strategies. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive play-calling could also play a role. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in trader expectations, causing the price to move as participants react to the latest information.