TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific football game between Miami and New York. The outcome depends on whether individual players meet or exceed predetermined reception thresholds during the match.
All markets in this event are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player records the required number of receptions. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event includes full game receptions, including overtime. The markets resolve to Yes if the specified player records the stated number of receptions or more in the game.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when complex factors are at play. However, sportsbook odds can be useful for understanding public perception and identifying potential value discrepancies in this market. It’s worth comparing both to form a well-rounded view of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the number of receptions will exceed a certain threshold. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective wisdom suggests is the most likely result. The current price represents the cost to take one side of the bet, and changes based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for both teams in the Miami vs New York game will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of the 'yes' or 'no' outcome. Official game statistics from a recognized sports data source will serve as the basis for the resolution. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant data on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Miami or New York teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also shift expectations. Finally, as the game approaches, any public analysis or expert opinions that deviate from the current market consensus could prompt traders to reassess their positions.