TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:08 PM EST
Kalshi
The market focuses on predicting whether specific players will achieve certain reception thresholds in an upcoming football game between Miami and New York. Outcomes depend on individual player performance, with various benchmarks set for each participant.
Each market evaluates whether a named player achieves a specified number of receptions or more in the designated game. If the player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once the player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of receptions recorded during the game.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources or varying interpretations of team strengths and player matchups. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of informed traders, incorporating various factors such as player statistics, injury reports, and game-day conditions. As more trades occur, the price converges towards a consensus expectation.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players in the Miami vs New York game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the league, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. All contracts will be settled based on these verified results.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing game, could also shift expectations. Unexpected starting lineup announcements or adjustments to offensive strategies could also lead to fluctuations in the price of contracts. Finally, any significant updates on player matchups or defensive schemes could move this market.