TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a rushing milestone in an upcoming football game between Miami and New York. It focuses on the longest run each named player records during the contest. The outcome depends on performance metrics rather than the game's final score.
The event determines if designated players record a longest rush exceeding specified yardage thresholds in the Miami vs New York J Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete records a rush longer than the stated threshold, that market resolves to Yes. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles to the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the longest rush actually recorded during the game. These rules apply independently to each player’s market, with all outcomes contingent on in-game performance rather than the overall result of the match.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market incorporates the diverse perspectives of many traders. If a significant number of traders believe a player is more likely to have the longest rush than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that player will decrease, indicating a higher implied probability. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations of the same information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which player will have the longest rush. As more traders buy a contract for a specific player, the price of that contract increases, reflecting a higher implied probability of that outcome. Conversely, selling a contract drives the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven entirely by supply and demand from traders on the Kalshi exchange, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official game statistics that determine which player had the longest single rushing attempt during the game. The player with the longest rush, as recorded by official NFL statistics, will be declared the winner. The official NFL game statistics are the source for determining the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Injury reports concerning key running backs are a major catalyst, as the absence of a star player significantly alters the landscape. News regarding weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable for running the ball, could also impact prices. Changes in team strategies or coaching decisions related to running plays, and even late-breaking news about player matchups, could all contribute to shifts in the market as traders adjust their predictions.