TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with receivers. It allows participants to assess and wager on the likelihood of a player exceeding certain completion thresholds during the match.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing completions achieved by either Geno Smith or Malik Willis in the Miami vs New York J game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. For each player, if they are active but do not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a player takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual passing completions recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., 16+, 21+, etc. for Geno Smith; 12+, 17+, etc. for Malik Willis), and the market resolves to 'Yes' only if the respective player meets or exceeds their designated threshold. These rules ensure clarity in settlement regardless of player participation status or game anomalies.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregate belief of informed traders. You may find that the odds on Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges or if there's a significant shift in public perception about the likely outcome of the game. It’s common to see discrepancies, as each venue has its own user base and pricing dynamics. This market can sometimes offer a more accurate forecast, particularly when a large and informed group participates.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time forecast. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the outcome. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved during the Miami vs New York game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts associated with their positions shortly after the game concludes and the official stats are released. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the Miami vs New York passing market between now and resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries – particularly the quarterbacks or their primary receivers – would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect the expected passing volume. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about team dynamics or player performance could cause traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions accordingly.