TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in an upcoming professional football game between Miami and New York. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will dominate the final quarter of play.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Miami and New York in the fourth quarter of their scheduled game on October 25, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning margin: New York must win by more than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, or Miami must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points during that quarter. If the game is rescheduled or canceled, all markets will be voided. Only points scored within the standard fourth-quarter timeframe count, with no consideration for overtime scoring. The outcome hinges entirely on the exact margin of victory in that specific quarter, making each threshold a distinct measure of dominance.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a relatively small number of professionals, while this market aggregates insights from anyone who participates. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information that sportsbooks may not immediately factor in, such as subtle team news or public sentiment. However, both aim to accurately forecast the outcome of the Miami vs New York game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants regarding the Miami vs New York spread.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the 4th quarter of the Miami vs New York game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts associated with their positions shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Unexpected performance in earlier quarters of the game, or adjustments made by coaches during halftime, might also lead to shifts in the market. Public sentiment and media coverage can also play a role, as they can influence the overall perception of each team’s chances in the 4th quarter.