TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which specific player or defensive unit will score the first touchdown for the New York Jets in an upcoming football game against Miami. Each market corresponds to a different potential scorer, with outcomes determined by in-game performance.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or unit scores the first touchdown for the New York Jets in the designated game. If the designated participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a participant takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined by whether they score the first touchdown. If no New York Jets touchdowns occur during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all player-specific markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all participant markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each potential scorer.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and attempt to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both prediction markets and sportsbooks adjust their odds. However, prediction markets can sometimes offer more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event, as they benefit from diverse perspectives and continuous trading.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring – in this case, the first New York Jets touchdown. As more traders believe the event is likely, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, indicating the level of demand and supply for this particular outcome. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on official game statistics determining which team scored the first touchdown. The outcome will be based on the official game record and any subsequent reviews by the relevant league authorities. The platform will verify the result against publicly available information to determine the winning contracts and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the health of key offensive players for either the Miami Dolphins or the New York Jets would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor a passing or running game, could also shift the odds. In-game events, such as early turnovers or dominant defensive performances, might also influence trading activity. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media buzz, could move the price of this market.