TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:16 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track which player or unit will score the first touchdown for Miami in an upcoming football game against New York. Each market focuses on a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by game performance. If no Miami touchdowns are scored, a separate market resolves positively.
All markets resolve based on whether the specified player or unit scores the first touchdown for Miami in the game scheduled for October 25, 2026. If a listed player is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair pre-game price. Once a player takes a snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves according to whether that player scores the first Miami touchdown. If no Miami touchdowns occur, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all player-specific markets resolve to No. Each market operates independently, with resolution contingent on the specific conditions outlined for the named participant.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a particular player is more likely to score first than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that outcome will decrease, offering better value to those who agree. This dynamic can create opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. As more people buy contracts for a specific player, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each player scoring the first touchdown.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, following the completion of the Miami versus New York game. The outcome will be determined by which player officially scores the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting from official game sources. The platform will then confirm the winning contract based on the official game results, and payouts will be processed accordingly. The resolution will reflect the official game statistics and scoring records.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in the team’s offensive strategy, or even weather conditions could shift traders’ expectations. A key player being ruled out would likely increase the probability of other players scoring first, causing their contract prices to fall. Pre-game analysis from sports analysts and updated betting lines from sportsbooks may also impact trader sentiment and drive price movements in this market.