TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates various scoring thresholds for the first half of an upcoming football game between Miami and New York. Each threshold represents a different level of combined points that the two teams might achieve before halftime.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both Miami and New York in the first half of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Only points scored during the first half count, and all markets are independent, each evaluating a different point total benchmark. The markets cover a range of thresholds from over 3.5 points to over 42.5 points, allowing participants to assess varying levels of scoring intensity in the first half. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade on their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of information becomes publicly available, as this market can incorporate information faster than traditional odds-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different first half totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that total occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability of each possible total, making it a dynamic reflection of collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half total score is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will be sourced from official game statistics and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders who purchased contracts representing the correct first half total will receive a payout, while those who sold contracts on incorrect totals will incur a loss. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Miami or New York teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact scoring, could also shift the market. Even late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders' beliefs and cause the price to fluctuate. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators can also play a role in shaping the market’s direction.