TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 5:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two football teams in a specific game, focusing on how many field goals each team successfully kicks. The outcome depends on whether the teams reach certain thresholds of field goals made during the match.
The event evaluates multiple markets based on the number of field goals scored by each team in the Miami vs Minnesota Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of field goals (1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+) that either Miami or Minnesota must achieve for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. All markets share a common secondary rule set: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, it remains active and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment regardless of scheduling changes. The markets are independent but interconnected through these shared conditions, allowing participants to speculate on varying levels of scoring performance by each team.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly deviates from expert analysis. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, particularly as new information emerges or as the event draws closer. Examining both can offer a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the number of field goals scored in the Miami vs Minnesota game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates new information and provides a real-time estimate of the likelihood of each scenario. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of field goals scored in the Miami vs Minnesota game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual result. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final game data to understand how this market will settle. The resolution process is designed to be objective and based on publicly available information.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Miami or Minnesota teams would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected weather conditions at the game location could also impact scoring and, consequently, the market price. Furthermore, major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to increased volume and price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves leading up to the game’s conclusion.