TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks rushing performance thresholds for specific players in an upcoming football game. Markets resolve based on whether individual players meet or exceed designated yardage milestones during the match. Outcomes are determined purely by in-game statistics, with specific handling for players who are active but do not participate in plays.
All markets resolve based on whether specified players record rushing yardage thresholds in the Miami vs Minnesota game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For each market, if the named player achieves the stated rushing yardage minimum (e.g., 40+, 50+), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A secondary rule clarifies that if a player is listed as active for the game but does not take any snaps—whether due to injury, coaching decision, or other reasons—the market settles at the fair market price determined before kickoff. However, once a player takes at least one snap, even if the play is nullified by penalty or otherwise invalidated, the market outcome is finalized based solely on the total rushing yards they accumulate during the game. These provisions apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistency in resolution methodology regardless of the specific yardage threshold being evaluated.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often include a 'vig' or commission, which influences their odds, while this market is driven purely by supply and demand among traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price for that outcome will rise, potentially offering a better value than sportsbook odds. However, it’s important to remember that both reflect probabilities as perceived by different groups – bettors in the case of sportsbooks and traders in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that total occurring, as determined by the collective actions of all traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, news, and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely outcome, distinct from static odds offered elsewhere.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final rushing yard totals for the Miami versus Minnesota game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine the total rushing yards achieved by both teams, and that total will be compared to the various contract levels offered in this market. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect totals will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be significant, as would any changes in weather forecasts that could affect the game plan. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or player matchups could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, even general public perception, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, can create momentum and influence trading activity in this market, causing prices to fluctuate as the game approaches.