TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific player in an upcoming football game between Miami and Minnesota. It focuses on whether the player achieves certain cumulative yardage thresholds through both rushing and receiving plays. The outcome depends entirely on the player's statistical production during the game.
The event evaluates whether Aaron Jones Sr. achieves specified cumulative yardage thresholds (90+, 115+, and 140+) through combined rushing and receiving yards in the Miami vs Minnesota Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. For all thresholds, if Jones is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once Jones takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the total rushing and receiving yards he records during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all yardage threshold markets for this player in the specified game, ensuring consistent evaluation criteria for each outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public bias or early betting action. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market represents the collective belief of traders. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as traders react to news and analysis. Comparing the two can provide a broader perspective on the likely outcome of the game and the performance of individual players.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each outcome, offering insights into the collective prediction for the total rushing and receiving yards in this NFL matchup.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official statistics for the Miami versus Minnesota game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the combined total of rushing and receiving yards achieved by all players involved in the game, as officially recorded by the NFL. The final market price will reflect the accuracy of the collective prediction made by traders on Kalshi prior to the game’s completion.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either the Miami or Minnesota teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or player matchups, as well as analysis from sports analysts, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market as traders adjust their predictions.