TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Miami and Minnesota. Participants bet on how many times each player will catch the ball during the match, with payouts scaling based on actual reception counts.
Both markets function as scalar outcome events tied to the Miami vs Minnesota Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026, focusing on receptions by Aaron Jones Sr. and Malik Washington respectively. Each market resolves to Yes when Yes contracts pay $0.05 per recorded reception, capped at $1.00, meaning the maximum payable amount corresponds to 20 receptions. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring the total payout per contract always sums to $1.00 regardless of receptions. Payouts are proportional to each holder’s position size, with examples provided for clarity: 8 receptions yield Yes at $0.40 and No at $0.60, while zero receptions result in Yes at $0.00 and No at $1.00. The structure applies equally to both players, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the NFL, and all trademarks remaining property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of both types of markets. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information, such as injury reports, than sportsbook odds, though this isn't always the case.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for players in the Miami vs Minnesota game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. This is based on official game statistics, and the market will settle to reflect the actual number of receptions achieved during the game. The specific details of the outcome are determined by publicly available game data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Miami or Minnesota teams would likely cause shifts in the market. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that might favor a passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected lineup changes or strategic adjustments announced by either coaching staff could also move the market. Finally, general news and analysis surrounding the game, including expert predictions and player performance reports, can all contribute to price fluctuations.