TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming football game between Miami and Minnesota. Contracts will pay out based on a tiered scale depending on how many times the designated player catches the ball during the match. The structure incentivizes participants to predict reception totals accurately.
Contracts pay out based on the number of receptions a designated player achieves in the Miami vs Minnesota Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each Yes contract pays according to a predefined tiered schedule, where payouts increase with the number of receptions up to a maximum of $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula is calculated as floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official number of receptions recorded. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the corresponding Yes payout. The market resolves to Yes if the specified player records any receptions, with payouts capped at $1.00. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong ability to forecast real-world outcomes, sometimes surpassing the accuracy of traditional polls or analysts. It’s common to see the price on Kalshi adjust as new information becomes available and more traders participate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final reception total. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, reflecting the collective intelligence of the market. The current price indicates what the market believes is the most likely outcome, based on all available information.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception total for the Miami vs Minnesota game will be sourced from official NFL statistics and used to determine which contracts pay out. Successful contracts will be those predicting a reception total that matches the actual result. Traders holding those contracts will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of purchase.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers on either the Miami or Minnesota teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected number of receptions. Additionally, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or changes in quarterback play could shift trader sentiment and move the price on Kalshi.